As President Biden faces increasing challenges after last week’s televised debate, investors are weighing the potential impact of changes in the Democratic leadership. Market trends largely reflect the changing fortunes of Biden and his Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump, noted Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial. He observed a correlation between market movements and Trump’s electoral prospects since March, suggesting that market sentiments align with perceptions of political stability rather than approval of specific policies. Turnquist emphasized that market reactions show a preference for certainty over uncertainty, with earlier trends indicating a positive market response when Biden was initially favored to win.
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The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates before gathering more information. The latest debates and ensuing speculation about Biden’s candidacy have heightened concerns within the Democratic Party. Although the White House confirmed the President’s commitment to stay in the race, Vice President Kamala Harris is gaining popularity in betting markets as a potential alternative. Meanwhile, PredictIt odds are 59% in favor of Trump’s reelection, sharply contrasting with Biden’s reduced support—around 16% after the debate. Public opinion polls following the debate reflect a tightening race, with some showing Trump gaining an edge, confirming the ongoing uncertainty in the political landscape.
