Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, well-known for their expertise in cryptocurrency ETFs, have assessed the likelihood of approval for several altcoin-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
While Ethereum is currently the only altcoin with an approved ETF, they have examined the prospects for Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin.
Their analysis indicates that Litecoin has the highest chance of approval at 90%, with a decision expected by October 2, 2025. Dogecoin follows with a 75% probability by October 18, while Solana and XRP have estimated chances of 70% and 65% respectively by their deadlines in October 2025.
The analysts have highlighted that Litecoin and Dogecoin are more likely to be classified as commodities by the SEC, which could improve their chances of approval. They have also suggested that the political landscape could influence future decisions, noting that if the Democrats had won the U.S. election instead of Donald Trump, approvals for altcoin ETFs other than Litecoin might have been less likely.
Applications for HBAR and Polkadot spot ETFs are still under review, with no probability estimates provided. The SEC has recently invited public comments on the Litecoin and Solana ETF proposals as part of its evaluation process.