Recently, retail investors have shown a rather cautious attitude towards the cryptocurrency market. This behavior contrasts sharply with previous cycles, when their participation had a significant impact on the industry’s dynamics.
Experts believe that the current reluctance of retail investors to engage in the crypto market may influence its trajectory. Gustavo Faria, co-founder of Nosy, pointed out several key indicators that confirm the idea that retail investor participation is still weak:
A defining characteristic of the peaks of the
Bitcoin
cycle is the dominance of coins held for less than three months.
Currently, short-term holders account for about 35% of the realized upper bound, compared to over 70% during previous market peaks. This indicates that long-term holders of Bitcoin, often referred to as “smart money,” are maintaining their positions, contributing to a more stable market foundation.
Bitcoin Realized Capitalization Chart
Historically, the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) of short-term holders has exceeded 1.10 points during market peaks. In this cycle, the highest recorded value of SOPR is 1.05, indicating a more neutral market position.
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Additionally, Faria believes that the current market remains stable, reducing the likelihood of an immediate transition to a bear market and showing potential for further growth.
SOPR of Bitcoin Short-Term Holders
Anthony Sassano, an independent educator on
Ethereum
, also emphasizes the lack of broad market growth, which is usually attributed to retail investor participation:
Retail and new money was and is still not here – [all the movements come] only from old crypto users…
2.5 months on from this and the total market cap of everything outside of the top 10 is down 40% (and everything outside of BTC and ETH is down 26%)
“Retail” and new money was and is still not here – it’s all just crypto natives doing max PvP
https://t.co/Hs4d4yakvX
— sassal.eth/acc (@sassal0x)
June 18, 2024
In support of this opinion, crypto analyst Cyclop confirmed the lack of enthusiasm in the retail trader sector. He pointed out that trading volumes are significantly lower than in 2021, despite the higher price of Bitcoin. The analyst suggests that this lack of participation by small investors indicates that the market has not yet reached the speculative frenzy observed in previous cycles.
Cyclop
Statement:
Ordinary people are still not in the crypto sector. My friends do not send me messages on WhatsApp. My mother does not know that Bitcoin is at an all-time high.
Bitcoin Trading Volume
