According to the Financial Times, as the US presidential election approaches, cryptocurrency traders and analysts speculate that Donald Trump’s victory could provide significant momentum for Bitcoin. Despite challenges since April, including asset sales and expenditures from Mt Gox totaling $9 billion, discussions in the market are focused on the potential “Trump trade” to drive up the leading cryptocurrency later in 2024.
Since the halving in October, Bitcoin has dropped by X% within a month due to factors such as government sales of $1.5 billion and volatility suppression by hedge funds. Traders are searching for catalysts for Bitcoin’s next upward move.
Trump is seen as crypto-friendly, and optimism grows about his victory having a positive impact on the industry and regulation. Analysts suggest Trump’s energy policies could benefit cryptocurrency mining, contrasting concerns over Biden’s previous proposals for crypto taxation.
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Despite market downturns, significant Bitcoin investors continue to enter the fray. Jeff Kendrick of Standard Chartered Bank notes that Trump’s potential policies—increased US deficits, tariffs, and tax cuts—could heighten inflation and Treasury yields, affecting Bitcoin as a hedge.
The impact of the “Trump trade” on BTC depends on his election opponent. According to RealClearPolitics forecasts, Trump holds 55%, while Biden has 16.5%. Market sentiments and perceptions drive narratives, potentially strengthening BTC if confidence in a Trump victory persists.
