The main concern in the coming days is whether Bitcoin can maintain its current position, especially as it approaches the $60,000 level by the end of the month.
Bitcoin recently fell below several moving averages, causing short-term holders to incur losses as the price dropped below their total cost basis. As of the time of writing, the value of this cryptocurrency hovers around $61,200, with a daily decline of nearly 5% and a monthly decline of about 9.5%.
This has led to a temporary decrease in demand, with particular attention to the activities of large investors (whales) as Bitcoin hits its lowest price since mid-May.
Upcoming US unemployment data and revised second-quarter GDP figures are expected to intensify volatility this week.
Analyst Perspectives
Popular trader Crypto Ed points out that Bitcoin appears weaker than expected and is expected to decline further.
Good morning!
Back at the desk after two weeks of vacation and terrible public events.
Bitcoin looks weaker than I expected and should see more downside. YT update will take place later this morning.
Alts: can see another leg down about 20%.
Nevertheless, I wish everyone a great week!
$ETHUSD
$AVAX
…
pic.twitter.com/XXZTJK8FRy
— Ed_NL (@Crypto_Ed_NL)
June 24, 2024
Meanwhile, another trader, Daan Crypto Trades, identifies key levels within Bitcoin’s trading range over the past few months, indicating that if the bullish momentum continues, a rebound could lead to a retest of the mid-range.
#Bitcoin
Reached the golden pocket Fibonacci retracement level.
If there is still hope for the bulls to push it to higher lows, this is the time.
A rebound should lead to a retest of the mid-range, otherwise, a retest of the range low could occur.
One step at a time
pic.twitter.com/Rdf1lGzuas
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto)
June 24, 2024
Failure could lead to a retest of the range.
Read more:
Bitcoin Price Dips Below $63,000 — Where Is It Headed?
Factors and Market Sentiment
Important macroeconomic data, including US initial jobless claims, revised second-quarter GDP, and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index for June, will be released in the second half of the week (June 28). These data, especially the PCE, are crucial as they influence the policy decisions of the Federal Reserve (Fed).
The current ratings of the CME FedWatch tool
show
that the market expects the Fed to start tapering in September, which could be seen as a key moment for crypto assets.
Evai CEO Matthew Dixon predicts that lower-than-expected PCE results could have a positive impact on Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Market awaits
#PCE
this Friday, the 28th.
#FED
preferred inflation indicator.
I expect the reading to be lower than expected
#BTC
#Crypto
#Altcoins
I expect higher figures for other risk assets.
pic.twitter.com/6voFzlKAVr
— Matthew Dixon – CEO Evai (@mdtrade)
June 24, 2024
Stocks and Cryptocurrencies
Despite the poor performance of cryptocurrencies, the US stock market has performed well, with the S&P 500 index reaching a new all-time high last week. This negative correlation has puzzled many, highlighting a significant decrease in bearish interest in major exchange-traded funds and a decline in volatility index.
A market analyst on Twitter attributes Bitcoin’s sensitivity to the liquidity levels of the Federal Reserve, which decreased by $14 billion last week. The analyst suggests that the current level may be at or near a local bottom, which could be reflected in the upcoming recovery of crypto assets.
Chart of Fed net liquidity performance has been updated to reflect a significant $14 billion decline this week [Chart 1].
Bitcoin appears to continue to be heavily influenced by Fed net liquidity volatility [Chart 2].
Bitcoin fell 4.77% as Fed net liquidity dropped 2.21% this week.
Stocks…
https://t.co/e9NsnRaLyY
pic.twitter.com/lkl051BSNx
— Thomas (@TomasOnMarkets)
June 21, 2024
Cryptocurrency Market Sentiment
At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index is at 51, close to its lowest point in 2024, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment. Santiment analysts point out that fear and interest among Bitcoin traders usually intensify before a market rebound due to whale accumulation.
People are predominantly fearful or disinterested in Bitcoin as it trades between $650,000 and $660,000. Such prolonged FUD levels are rare due to traders constantly giving up. Bitcoin traders’ exhaustion, combined with whale accumulation, usually leads to a rebound, rewarding patience.
pic.twitter.com/WMy3lbdjEB
— Santiment (@santimentfeed)
June 20, 2024
